How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Climate category with $26K traded.
Expected settlement: 2026-11-01.
Buy prices at last build
- 8.0+: Polymarket 7¢
Prices are buy prices on each platform when this page was built; open the page in a browser for live prices.
Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the re…