Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Culture category with $5.3M traded.
Expected settlement: 2027-01-01.
Buy prices at last build
- Polymarket 3¢
Prices are buy prices on each platform when this page was built; open the page in a browser for live prices.
Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.