Why prediction market prices differ between platforms
What a price gap actually is
If a contract trades at 62c on one venue and 57c on another, the gap is 5 cents, or roughly 5 percentage points of implied probability. That number only means something if both contracts settle on exactly the same event, at the same time, under the same rules.
Why the same question trades at two prices
Prediction Pantheon matches markets across platforms and shows the gap side by side, but the match itself is a judgement call. We label every comparison as an exact match, a similar market, or single platform so you can see how much weight the number deserves.
How to tell a real gap from a false one
If the gap survives all five checks it is worth investigating. Most do not.
Frequently asked questions
Does a price gap mean one platform is wrong? No. Both prices can be reasonable if the contracts settle differently, if the deadlines differ, or if the two venues have different participants. A gap is a prompt to read the rules, not proof of a mispricing.
How large does a price gap need to be to matter? It depends entirely on costs and liquidity. A 2-cent gap is usually consumed by fees and spread. Larger gaps often signal that the two markets are not actually equivalent.
How current are the prices on Prediction Pantheon? Prices refresh on a short pipeline cadence and each market page shows when it was last updated. Always confirm the live price on the platform before trading.
Keep reading
Compare live prediction markets across platforms, or continue in the learning hub.