2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Elections category with $167K traded.
Expected settlement: 2026-11-04.
Buy prices at last build
- Democrats 8-10%: Polymarket 26¢
Prices are buy prices on each platform when this page was built; open the page in a browser for live prices.
Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all val…