Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31, 2026?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $1.7M traded.
Expected settlement: 2027-01-01.
Buy prices at last build
- Polymarket 10¢
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Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal…