Will European military action against Iran by October 31?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $10K traded.
Expected settlement: 2026-10-31.
Buy prices at last build
- October 31: Polymarket 7¢
Prices are buy prices on each platform when this page was built; open the page in a browser for live prices.
Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states…