Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2026?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $629K traded.
Expected settlement: 2027-01-01.
Buy prices at last build
- December 31, 2027: Polymarket 21¢
Prices are buy prices on each platform when this page was built; open the page in a browser for live prices.
Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.