Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Elections category with $160K traded.
Expected settlement: 2027-01-01.
Buy prices at last build
- Before 2027: Kalshi 20¢ · Polymarket 15¢
Confirmed cross-platform price gap: 5¢ (identical market on both platforms).
Prices are buy prices on each platform when this page was built; open the page in a browser for live prices.
Settlement rules
Kalshi: If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.