Will US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $1.5M traded.
Expected settlement: 2026-11-01.
Buy prices at last build
- December 31: Polymarket 34¢
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Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement…