Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $93K traded.
Expected settlement: 2026-12-31.
Buy prices at last build
- Polymarket 14¢
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Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government. A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government. If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more indiv…