Will Lai Ching-te visit the United States?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $4K traded.
Expected settlement: 2027-07-01.
Buy prices at last build
- June 30: Polymarket 13¢ · Kalshi 35¢
Confirmed cross-platform price gap: 22¢ (identical market on both platforms).
Prices are buy prices on each platform when this page was built; open the page in a browser for live prices.
Settlement rules
Kalshi: If, after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, Lai Ching-te visits the United States of America by physically travelling to and being present within its geographic boundaries, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket: If Lai Ching-te visits the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Lai Ching-te physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Lai Ching-te enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or Taiwan, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.