Will Another NATO article 4 by October 31?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $41K traded.
Expected settlement: 2026-11-01.
Buy prices at last build
- December 31: Polymarket 28¢
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Settlement rules
Polymarket: NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a me…