Will U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $146K traded.
Expected settlement: 2027-01-01.
Buy prices at last build
- Polymarket 6¢
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Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test ana…