Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $676K traded.
Expected settlement: 2027-01-01.
Buy prices at last build
- Before Jan 1, 2027: Polymarket 21¢ · Kalshi 29¢
Confirmed cross-platform price gap: 8¢ (identical market on both platforms).
Prices are buy prices on each platform when this page was built; open the page in a browser for live prices.
Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi: If Pete Hegseth leaves (or announces he will leave) as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.