Will Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by November 30, 2026?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $2.9M traded.
Expected settlement: 2026-12-01.
Buy prices at last build
- December 31, 2027: Polymarket 40¢
Prices are buy prices on each platform when this page was built; open the page in a browser for live prices.
Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.