Will France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $218K traded.
Expected settlement: 2026-11-01.
Buy prices at last build
- December 31: Polymarket 3¢
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Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powe…