Will Iran full airspace closure by October 31?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $930K traded.
Expected settlement: 2026-11-01.
Buy prices at last build
- December 31: Polymarket 41¢
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Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, how…