Will Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?
Prediction market tracked on Prediction Pantheon in the Politics category with $4.6M traded.
Expected settlement: 2026-11-01.
Buy prices at last build
- December 31: Polymarket 9¢
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Settlement rules
Polymarket: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being es…